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A study published in The Lancet Oncology estimates that infections caused about 2.3 million of the 20 million cancer cases diagnosed worldwide in 2024—roughly 12%. Four pathogens accounted for about 92% of those infection-attributable cases, while HPV vaccination coverage remains far below the World Health Organization’s 90% target.
A global analysis published Sept. 28 in The Lancet Oncology estimates that infections caused about 2.3 million cancer cases in 2024, or roughly 12% of the 20 million cases diagnosed worldwide. The findings highlight the potential role of infection prevention, including vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) and hepatitis B, in reducing cancer risk.
Researchers combined estimates from the Global Cancer Observatory’s GLOBOCAN database with published research on infections in people with particular cancers. The study examined 12 viruses, bacteria and parasites that have been tied to cancer or identified as cancer-causing, and estimated the number of cancer cases attributable to each infection.
Four pathogens accounted for about 92% of the infection-attributable cases, according to the study. Helicobacter pylori, a bacterium that infects the gastrointestinal tract, was linked to an estimated 760,000 cases, primarily gastric cancers. HPV was linked to 750,000 cases, including cervical, penile, throat and mouth cancers. Hepatitis B was associated with 360,000 cases, and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) with 260,000.
Prevention coverage remains uneven. The World Health Organization reported that 31% of eligible adolescent girls worldwide received at least one HPV vaccine dose in 2024, compared with its 90% target. The study also found that low- and middle-income countries accounted for 77% of the global infection-driven cancer burden; about 81% of HPV-linked cancers occurred in those countries.
Vaccination Could Reduce Infection-Linked Cancers
The analysis estimates that infections caused a substantial share of cancer cases. Some of the underlying infections can be prevented, including through HPV and hepatitis B vaccines, which target two of the pathogens identified in the study. The source report also discusses H. pylori testing and treatment as a prevention measure.
The World Health Organization reported that HPV vaccination coverage among eligible adolescent girls was 31% in 2024, compared with its 90% target. The study found that low- and middle-income countries accounted for 77% of the global infection-driven cancer burden.
Dr. Prashant Mathur, director of India’s National Centre for Disease Informatics and Research, who was not involved in the study, told Live Science that when measures addressing factors such as tobacco use, alcohol consumption, diet, physical activity and environmental pollution are combined, an estimated 50 to 60 percent of cancers in India are avoidable. The source report notes that past studies suggest similar figures may hold globally.
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The Four Pathogens Behind Most Cases
The study’s estimates draw on cancer registry information compiled in GLOBOCAN and published data on infections in people with specific cancers. The researchers combined those sources to estimate infection-attributable cancer cases. The figures are model-based estimates, rather than a count of individually confirmed infection-caused cancers.
HPV is associated with several cancers. Hepatitis B is a virus that attacks the liver, and the study estimated 360,000 cases associated with it. H. pylori accounted for an estimated 760,000 cases, primarily gastric cancers. EBV is associated with some throat cancers, lymphomas and stomach cancers, but there is not yet an approved EBV vaccine, according to the source report. Infection with EBV is common—up to 95% of people may have been infected by adulthood—yet most infected people do not develop an EBV-related cancer.
Dr. Rebecca Perkins, an obstetrician-gynecologist at Tufts University School of Medicine who was not involved in the study, discussed research from Australia, England and Finland. She told Live Science that the research showed zero cases of HPV-related cancers or deaths in young adults who had received the vaccine by age 13. Those findings concern particular populations and outcomes; they do not mean HPV-related cancers have disappeared everywhere.
“The biggest misconception from families is that the HPV vaccine is not needed or that it can wait.”
— Dr. Rebecca Perkins, Tufts University School of Medicine, speaking to Live Science
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Limits of the Global Estimates
The 2.3 million figure is an estimate based on cancer registry data and research linking infections with particular cancers. The source report does not provide a case-by-case determination for all cancers in the calculation. It also notes that the estimate may be larger because registry coverage is limited and more high-quality data is needed. The total should not be read as a count of cancers that vaccination alone could have prevented.
The analysis examines 12 pathogens and estimates that infections caused about one in eight cancer cases worldwide in 2024. The source material does not quantify how much future cancer incidence could be reduced by particular prevention measures.
For EBV, infection is widespread but most infected people do not develop related cancer, and an approved vaccine is not yet available. The source report describes vaccine development as challenging because of the virus’s biology. The scale of future benefit from an EBV vaccine, if one is developed, remains unknown.
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Coverage and Vaccine Research Ahead
Public health agencies and health systems will continue working to improve access to HPV and hepatitis B vaccination, while researchers study how best to deliver available vaccines. Perkins said a single-dose HPV vaccine regimen could make mass campaigns easier by lowering costs and removing the need to track people for a follow-up dose; she noted that recent trials have supported the approach. The source material does not specify a global timetable for adopting single-dose schedules.
Researchers are also pursuing an EBV vaccine, but no approved product is currently available. The study’s findings may help guide attention toward infection prevention, but they do not prescribe a particular national policy or predict when cancer rates will change. Future monitoring of vaccination coverage and cancer incidence will be needed to measure progress.
For readers, the immediate practical point is to consult local public health guidance or a health professional about recommended HPV and hepatitis B vaccination. Recommendations and schedules can vary by age and location.
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Key Questions
What does the study mean by one in eight cancer cases?
The study estimates that infections with 12 cancer-associated pathogens accounted for about 2.3 million of roughly 20 million cancer cases worldwide in 2024, or approximately 12%. It is a population-level estimate, not a claim that every infection leads to cancer.
Which infections accounted for most infection-linked cancer cases?
The four leading pathogens were H. pylori, HPV, hepatitis B and EBV. Together, the study estimated they accounted for about 92% of the cancer cases attributed to infections.
Can vaccines prevent some of these cancers?
HPV and hepatitis B vaccines can prevent the infections targeted by those vaccines and are used as part of cancer prevention. The study does not estimate that vaccination would prevent all infection-attributable cases, and there is currently no approved vaccine for EBV.
How does HPV vaccination coverage compare with the global target?
The WHO reported that 31% of eligible adolescent girls worldwide received at least one HPV vaccine dose in 2024, below its 90% target. Coverage varies among countries and populations.
Do most people with EBV develop cancer?
No. EBV infection is common, with up to 95% of people infected by adulthood, but most infected people do not develop an EBV-related cancer. The study estimates EBV’s contribution across populations, not an individual person’s cancer risk.
Source: fediverse
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